The Case for Term Limits in Uganda

The succession talk is in fact a clever way for the NRM rank and file to say something that they couldn’t dare do previously — that Museveni is tired, and his time go has come.

A newly elected parliament that has many members who are the age of Museveni’s son, possibly younger, see him as a dinosaur who has lost moral authority by failing to deal with corruption over the years.

His attempt to slap down his party’s rebellious MPs on the oil issue was met by defiance from several of them. A few years ago, when he stared down his party, everyone turned tail and run.

The president has not helped himself by a spate of perplexing utterances. He often refers to the recently discovered oil fields as “my oil.” He slams critics of the increasing cost of food, saying it is a great opportunity for farmers to grow rich.

However, at the same time, he refuses to increase public sector wages of those who would buy the food, so less of it find its way to dinner tables.

One old Ugandan observer noted that the effect of all this is to inflate the cost of patronage. Museveni has stood by Mbabazi. But in a Uganda where the executive has to buy votes in the house, it might cost to restore calm in the party.

My source argues that several of the MPs will only be silenced if their election expenses are reimbursed, perhaps at double the rate.

Museveni will also need to find juicy pork for the army of unemployed or underemployed former party functionaries, to avoid their joining the restless ranks.

Yet it would overly cynical to say that all the clamour is just the sound of ruling party politicians increasing the price of loyalty.

For the president, it is probably like trying to buy health insurance when you are well past 60. Many insurers will refuse to take your money.

However, it also true that the few that do, will charge you exorbitant premiums. In that sense, it is cheaper to die young. If Museveni, who has now been in power for 25 years had been a good businessman, he would have left power at least five years ago. But then he isn’t.